OREGONIZER
The Official Newsletter of the IAWP Oregon Chapter
SPRING 2023
PRESIDENT-ELECT NOTES
I am excited with the prospects that the next year holds. I look forward to seeing how the IAWP Oregon Chapter can assist and/or collaborate with the Employment Department and what services we can provide to our members, such as trainings and educational opportunities, as well as public service opportunities. More to come on these upcoming activities in the near future, but for now, here are a couple of things we are planning.
Elections: In another section of this Oregonizer you will see an article on the upcoming elections. If you are interested in getting more involved, 1) fill out the nominations form, 2) contact any of your Board of Directors (http://www.iawporegon.org/meet-your-board.html), or 3) contact us via our “contact us” page on our website (http://www.iawporegon.org/contact-us.html). We have opportunities to assist the chapter grow and would love to have you get involved.
Public Service/Volunteer: July 4th weekend: Public service opportunity. Members of the Oregon Chapter Executive Board are going to visit a couple of local (Salem) Memory Care, Assisted Living, and Adult Foster Care Facilities and provide the residents a little ice cream treat. We believe that remembering these individuals who have given so much to our society and in some cases do not have very many visitors is such a rewarding activity. If you are interested in doing an activity such as this, or anything else, in your area please reach out and let us know what you would like to do.
Lunch & Learns/Educational Events: We are working on developing additional lunch & learn opportunities, as well as other educational events. Watch for more on that in the near future.
Feel free to get ahold of me directly and let’s chat.
Excited for the future,
Ron Sohnrey
President-Elect
IAWP Oregon Chapter
It's Election Time!
It is time for our Chapter to choose some new officers. The nominations are now open, so if you know of someone who would make a great Officer for our Chapter, please use the link to the nomination form below to nominate your candidate. If you wish to run for an open position on the Board, please feel free to nominate yourself.
The following positions are open for nomination:
- President-Elect
- Secretary/Treasurer
- Director-At-Large
Click the button below to see the position descriptions and to go to the nomination form.
Submitted by: Rebecca Nance, Senior Legislative Advisor
My colleague, David Genz, and I are in the throes of the last five weeks of the 2023 Oregon Legislative Session.This time of the legislative session is a little strange; we are in “hurry up and wait” mode, meaning when we are asked for information we must provide it within very tight timelines.
Probably the biggest thing impacting the entirety of state government is that ten of the minority members of the Senate have been boycotting Senate floor sessions for over two weeks now. The possible “light at the end of the tunnel” fizzled when the talks between the Senate President and the Senate Republican Leader and other members broke down weekend before last.
You may recall during the last general election, Oregon voters overwhelmingly approved a change to Oregon’s constitution that restricts legislators from running for re-election, after their term expires, if they have more than ten unexcused absences. On Monday, May 15, four state senators reached the 10 day unexcused absence threshold, and another six joined them later in the week. There are now ten Oregon Senators who may not be eligible to run for re-election when their respective terms expire – that is one-third of the Oregon Senate. For more on the Senate walkout, and the implications, check out this Oregon Capital Chronicle article about it.
A question that has come up a lot lately is “what happens if the budgets aren’t adopted by the legislature”? This would not be an ideal scenario, however, there is a bill (HB 5046) that allows for flat funding of state agencies through September 15, 2023. This bill was signed into law by the Governor on May 16. If this happens, the Governor will more than likely call the legislators back for a special session.
OED bill updates:
· HB 3331 – UI Work Share – Signed into law on May 8
· SB 912A – Paid Leave Overpayments and Penalties – Signed into law on May 19
· SB 913B – Paid Leave Technical Fixes –Because there was a conflict amendment (something identified by Legislative Counsel), it is in the Senate for a concurrence vote
· HB 2290 – OED Other Agency Data Sharing – passed out of House Business and Labor with a subsequent referral to Full Ways and Means due to a fiscal impact identified by a sibling agency. It has been in Full Ways and Means since February 1. We are still trying to get it scheduled for a hearing. It is up in the air, but is still alive for now.
Other legislative activity that you may find of interest:
· On the Oregon economic forecast front, there was good news about state revenue announced during the May 17 forecast presentation by Mark Mullens and Josh Lehner with the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis. The forecast indicates that there is an additional $2 billion that legislators get to figure out how to spend…or not. You may review the slides from the presentation here.
May 19 was the deadline for bills to have had a work session held (in the second chamber) or the bill is dead. The exception to this deadline is if a bill resides in one of the Rules or Revenue Committees, or full Ways and Means or in one of the other joint committees. The Legislative Affairs team (as well as Fiscal Staff, SMEs, Legislative Coordinators, Bill Analysts) continues to watch closely and work diligently to meet these requests.
It will be interesting to see how things play out. If I were a gambler, I’d make a wager that there will be special session called to finish passing state agency budgets. This being said, I’m not a gambler, although occasionally I buy a lottery ticket!
There is truly never a dull moment this time of year!
If you have any questions, don’t hesitate to email me. I’ll get back with you when I can.
Tactical Career Planning Video Series- EP4
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGapH16HpIgbY-8NBBGjxet9AHVEtglhq
[TCP04] is a quick huddle about the use of a functional resume and its design. TOPICS: Why a functional resume, the six information categories, and other considerations.
The incredible shrinking infrastructure workforce — and what to do about it
Brookings - 5/11/23
It has been over a year since the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act passed, unleashing an unprecedented $864 billion in federal funding to improve the country’s transportation, water, energy, and broadband systems. Read more...
****************************************************************************************************
Why labor shortages could be here to stay
Axios - 5-8-23
More and more Americans are getting too old to work. Read more...
****************************************************************************************************
Hiring shifts to those with graduate degrees: New Hires Quality Index
Upjohn Institute - 5/3/23
The Upjohn Institute New Hires Quality Index fell 0.2 percent between February and March to $20.05, 7 cents off its November record. The index is still up 1.5 percent over the past 12 months. Hiring rates are 0.6 percent above their pre-COVID levels. Read more...
****************************************************************************************************
How State Governments Can Address Their Workforce Talent Crisis
governing.com - May 2, 2023
One kind of crisis comes out of nowhere, like COVID-19. Another comes in the form of a slow burn, getting worse gradually. State governments generally coped well with the onset of the pandemic, adjusting operations quickly. Now they face the second kind of crisis: a large and growing workforce talent gap. Read more...
****************************************************************************************************
Job openings hit lowest level in two years as Fed weighs more rate hikes
thehill.com - 5/2/23
The number of open jobs in the economy decreased to 9.6 million in March, down from 9.9 million on the last day in February, as concerns about a recession later this year hung over the economy, according to data released Tuesday by the Labor Department. Read more...
****************************************************************************************************
State Governments Continue to Add Digital Equity Staff
govtech.com - 4/18/23
With a historic amount of funding coming from the federal government, state governments are increasingly starting to hire full-time staff to focus on digital equity work. Read more...
****************************************************************************************************
Veterans' Employment During Recessions
Rand Corporation - 2023
Newly separated service members face unique challenges as they enter the civilian labor market, so how can they manage their expectations during this critical period? Read more...
****************************************************************************************************
Fake job listings are a growing problem in the labor market
CBSnews.com - 3/30/23
Even as job openings have receded from their peak and layoffs cascade in some industries, one saving grace of the labor market is the plethora of open positions, with 1.8 openings for every American who is looking to get hired. Read more...
The Economy: Making Sense of the Data (Part 1)
By Malcolm G. Boswell, Workforce Operations Analyst and Economist 1
The business cycle represents the evolution of business (the economy) over time. When a new business model or new technology impacts the way business is done overall, like the introduction of computers, automation, productivity software, and more; there is a period of expansion supported by these new changes. This will carry on until these new innovations reach their maximum level of productivity and new changes are starting to be introduced. When expansion reaches its maximum capacity (see graph 1), it is said we are at the peak, shortly after there is a transition period to replace the old changes for the new ones, during this process productivity is impacted and the economy enters a recessionary phase necessary for the leaving of older processes for newer ones. This continues until enough of the old processes have been replaced and enough of the new processes have been implemented and learned where productivity levels out in a trough, which is the lowest point of the business cycle prior to the new period of growth that includes a period of recovery and a period of expansion beyond the previous peak of productivity.
To be clear, the business cycle is a normal process the economy goes through to constantly adjust to change while continuing to grow. Recessions are a big part of the Business Cycle and as such will happen at relatively regular intervals. While the frequency and duration of recessions have slowed considerably since the 1800’s, the reality is that they are still frequent, they still impact millions of people but why are we surprised by them?
Most recessions are short lived because they are the result of a significant change in one or few segments of the economy, but some are very deep, and recovery (the longest part of the downturn) is usually longer in duration than most other recessions. These are caused by an economy-wide event that impacts the heart of the economy, and that is a monetary recession.
How do we know when a recession is happening or about to happen? There are many indicators that help economist determine the potential for or actual recession; some are leading indices; others are lagging indices (see graph 2).
Some general examples of leading indicators include Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). The PMI reflects trends in the manufacturing and service sectors and can be a useful signal of growth in a nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) due to changes in the demand for materials from corporations. Durable Goods Orders, Consumer confidence Index, Jobless Claims, Yield Curve and more.
Some general examples of lagging indicators include the unemployment rate, corporate profits, and labor cost per unit of output. Interest rates can also be good lagging indicators since rates change as a reaction to severe movements in the market. Other lagging indicators are economic measurements, such as gross domestic product (GDP), the consumer price index (CPI), and the balance of trade (BOT).
Historically the key indicator used by most economists and the FED is the GDP, it is said that if the GDP declines for two or more consecutive quarters that that was a clear sign of an eminent recession. Mostly because the GDP is the total value of all goods and services produced each quarter, and usually that was impacted by changes in consumer confidence lowering below a level they were confident in making regular purchases. With slowing demand for goods and services, orders to produce goods and services slowed and in response, companies laid people off, raising the amount of unemployed people, most of whom applied and received jobless claims (unemployment insurance).
However, technological changes that lead to the ability of businesses to adjust productivity by increasing or decreasing the output of their machines have led to some interesting changes in the model for determining the beginning and end of a recession.
Revision of Indicators of a Recession
Traditionally, the Gross Domestic Product was the key indicator of recessions, expansions, and prosperity. The reason was that for the GDP to grow, productivity had to increase, and generally that meant employment growth, as labor was the biggest contributor to increasing productivity, more employment meant more money in the economy, and more purchasing power that meant higher sales and higher demand for goods and services. All the things that make for a growing economy.
However, in the past three recessions, economists began noticing a new phenomenon they called the “Jobless Recovery” where GDP grew but employment remained low or continued to decline. This was very true of the “Great Recession” of 2008-2009. More recently in the first two quarters of 2022 we saw a declining GDP, but the unemployment levels remained at near historic lows and demand for labor continued to grow, which goes against traditional norms. This has led to the Federal government reviewing and revising the traditional indicators of a recession giving more weight to employment, consumer confidence and more.
For a more complete analysis of how the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) measures potential recessions, click here.
For a study regarding the causes and consequences of the 2010-2011 Jobless Recovery click here.
To view a composite of economic indicators that tell the story of the health of the economy click here.
"CARPE DATUM"
The Pain of Shingles
Shingles is a condition I see on occasion at my clinic. As you might know, shingles is caused by a virus that is present years after a person has experienced chickenpox. Usually, a patient has a concern about a rash that appears someplace on their body, usually one side of the face, trunk, or on an arm or leg, and usually in a belt-like pat-tern. The rash can be range from no discomfort to excruciating “burning” or “pins and needles” sensations. Other symptoms of shingles in addition to the rash can be a headache, fever, and feeling bad just before the rash appears. Shingles is more common in the older population, but I’ve seen it in twenty-somethings.
Having shingles can be a life-changing event in a very unpleasant way. As bad as this condition sounds when actively present, there can be damage to the nerves that were affected by the virus that caused shingles even after the rash has cleared. That condition is called post herpetic neuralgia (PHN) and that damage can be painful for months or even longer with limited treatment options available (there are some options other than pain medications). People are generally aware there is a vaccine for shingles, and I am often asked whether it is a good idea to get the shot.
As with most options related to health decisions, there is both good and not so good with receiving the shingles vaccine. One of the considerations in receiving the vaccine is that it is effective at an estimated rate of 50%. One of the brighter sides of being vaccinated is that the severity is reportedly reduced if the offending virus should reappear, and complications including PHN are reduced. (One should always consult their health care provider with any questions regarding matters of health.)
The shingles-causing virus if present in a person’s body is held in check by a strong immune system. There are some fac-tors that weaken the immune system that cannot be avoided. Advancing age, illness, and some medications are just some of those factors. Stress also weakens the immune system, so think good thoughts, eat good food, rest your body adequately, and rest your mind on a daily basis.
For months and months, the price of eggs was soaring. Now, they’re going splat (Danielle Wiener-Bronner, CNN, “Egg prices are crashing. Here’s why”). As of last week, Midwest large eggs — the benchmark for eggs sold in their shells — cost just $0.94 per dozen in the wholesale market, according to Urner Barry, an independent price reporting agency. That’s a sharp fall from $5.46 per carton just six months ago. (In retail, prices are well above $1 per carton, though they too have been declining.) Why the decline? It’s because of a reversal of supply-demand trends that caused prices to spike in the first place.
Last year, deadly avian flu wiped out a significant number of egg-laying hens, reducing egg supplies. On top of that, farmers had to deal with inflated feed and fuel costs. Cal-Maine Foods (CALM), the largest US egg distributor, reported profit growth of over 700% in the quarter ending February 25 because of higher egg prices. Some US lawmakers like Sen. Elizabeth Warren have asked for more clarity on why prices got so high, raising concerns about possible price gouging. But now supply is back on track: Though the industry braced for more cases of bird flu this year, the deadly virus seems to be under control. Meanwhile, demand hasn’t kept pace The wholesale price drop began in late March, according to Karyn Rispoli, senior egg market analyst at Urner Barry. Prices hit annual lows in early May and have stayed about steady since then, she said.
NOT A MEMBER YET?
TRAININGS & WEBINAR'S OFFERED TO MEMBERS VIA IAWP INTERNATIONAL
The Workforce Professional Development Program (WPDP) is an online course providing both new and long time workforce development professionals a strong foundation to the work we do each day.
IAWP WEBINARS
__________________________________________________________________________________________
IAWP Mentorship Program Supports Career Development for Workforce Professionals
The International Association of Workforce Professionals (IAWP) is excited to announce the launch of its Mentoring Program. Click for more info
LIGHTER SIDE OF WORK
Ressurecting the fun of the Company picnic!
By Barbee Williams
Hey! Do you remember something called a “company picnic”? It was such a great time. I even remember barbecues here at OED. It is a time to have a small informal cookout and just enjoy each other’s company, play a few games, and get to know each other better when we are not talking work! You would be surprised at what you learn.
I have been to larger barbecues where we met everyone from a building or section and introduced ourselves to all the people we did not know. What a fun time! You finally can put a face to that name and visit with your new friends. How about those games we all play while adamantly saying we hate them but being first in line to play! (Usually involving water, balloons, water pistols and maybe even pie in the face.)
Guess what! We will get that opportunity this summer. Think how fun it would be to get all of the office staff to the Barbarcue. To have all of you together at this event? To meet families. Remember those days? I think we called them “kids gone wild” times. It would also be a great way to connect with folks that have moved to other offices. Let’s do this! It has been a couple of tough years and it is time to grab that mask (if you want to), get in that car, and boogy on down to the great picnic that will be talked about for years to come. Everyone remembering that first picnic after Covid!
Lets Do this! I am. Are you?
UPCOMING EVENTS
Annual 2023 IAWP Oregon Chapter Picnic
Where: Silver Falls – South Day Use Area
Date: Saturday, August 26th 2023
Time: 10:00 am – 5:00pm
Provided: Fried Chicken, Potato Salad, Cole Slaw, Water, Soda, Utensils
Bring: An Entrée or Salad or Dessert to share, chairs and blankets for your comfort, tables if you wish, hiking, swim gear.
Admission: $5 per car at State Park entrance
Who is invited: Everyone!
RSVP: Please email number of adults and kids (with ages) attending to Erika Motzko at Erika.E.Motzko@employ.oregon.gov
Saturday, Aug 26, 2023, 01:41 PM
Silver Falls State Park, Oregon, USA
RSVPs are enabled for this event.
2023 OREGON IAWP BOARD
CONTRIBUTORS WANTED
Duties: Write articles and features based on research and inter-views; conceive ideas for content; arrange for content from other sources; and select and edit photos and artwork to benefit the educational and professional interests of Oregon Chapter IAWP members.
Pay: The gratitude and admiration of your fellow Oregon Chapter IAWP members and the joy of seeing your name in print.
How to Apply: Submit articles or express interest by e-mail to Steve Strain at Steven.D.Strain@employ.oregon.gov
The Oregonizer
VOLUME 50, ISSUE 2
Contributors to this issue:
Ron Sohnrey
Erika Motzko
Malcolm Boswell
Mark Butterfield
Rebecca Nance
Paul Messet
Barbee Williams
Email: info@iawporegon.org
Website: http://iawporegon.org
Location: 2490 Fisher Rd NE, Salem, OR 97305